Navigating Change: Industrial Transformation and the Surge in High-Skilled Labour Demand - A Tanzanian Perspective

Abstract

Despite the ongoing economic transformation towards the non-agricultural sector in most developing countries, it remains unclear whether such dynamics are complemented by demand and absorption of skilled labour. Therefore, this paper utilizes the latest data from the 2020-2021 Tanzania Integrated Labor Force Survey (ILFS), which was conducted across all 26 administrative regions and 155 districts of the country, to examine the potential association between the transformation of the industrial structure and the absorption of a high-skilled labor force within the economy. Using a ridge regression model, the results indicate that economic transformation towards the non-agricultural sector and the employability of high-skilled labour are positively related. Moreover, even after applying a logistic regression model to test for robustness, the results remained consistent. While the data does not provide conclusive evidence for the underlying mechanisms behind these findings, we hypothesise that the quantity of education, rather than its quality, plays a pivotal role in this relationship. Furthermore, while this paper offers valuable insights into the relationship between the transformation of the industrial structure and skills absorption within the economy, the ILFS data does not allow us to pinpoint the specific areas within the non-agricultural sectors where these high-skilled workers are allocated. Conducting such an analysis would provide additional evidence for informed policy discussions.

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Keywords

Industrial Structure
,
Labour
,
Skills
,
Ridge Regression
,
Logistic Regression
,
Tanzania
...