This study examines the supply response of smallholder chickpea production in Tanzania in the context of rising global demand. Using annual time-series data from 1997 to 2022 and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling approach, the analysis assesses the influence of global chickpea prices, export performance (as a proxy for global market demand), and rainfall on chickpea area harvested. The results reveal that rainfall plays a critical role in shaping production decisions, exerting a negative effect in the short run—likely reflecting waterlogging risks during planting—and a positive and significant effect in the long run, underscoring the importance of stable moisture conditions for sustained production. Global prices and export performance exhibit positive and significant effects in the short run, indicating that farmers respond to recent market signals, but their long-run effects are statistically insignificant, suggesting weak price transmission and limited integration of smallholders into global markets. Additionally, policy and institutional shifts captured through dummy variables indicate a positive structural break in 2011, coinciding with the first official release of improved chickpea varieties and intensified dissemination efforts, while adverse climatic conditions likely explain the negative effect observed in 2015. Based on these findings, the study highlights the importance of climate-resilient production strategies and improved market infrastructure as key policy priorities for strengthening chickpea production in Tanzania, while noting the need for future research to explicitly examine the roles of labour, technology, and institutional factors.