Abstract
Kenya’s August 2022 general election marked an unprecedented political moment, as the sitting President Uhuru Kenyatta campaigned against his own deputy, William Ruto, in favour of a long-time opposition leader, Raila Odinga. Focusing on the Mount Kenya (Mt. Kenya) region, this article examines the fragility of ethnic bloc voting and the role of voter agency in shaping electoral outcomes. Drawing on a qualitative case study of the Gikuyu-Embu-Meru (GEMA) counties, the analysis shows that, despite sustained elite pressure and direct appeals from the sitting President Kenyatta, voters overwhelmingly rejected his preferred successor, Odinga of the Azimio la Umoja Coalition Party, and delivered decisive support to Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), under the Kenya Kwanza Coalition. The findings demonstrate that this outcome reflected neither automatic ethnic loyalty nor elite orchestration, but deliberate voter calculations informed by economic grievances, perceptions of elite exclusion, and evaluations of competing political narratives. Ruto’s “hustler versus dynasty” populist frame resonated by enabling voters to reinterpret patronage politics and assert autonomy against perceived elite imposition. The article argues that the 2022 Mt. Kenya vote exposes the limits of ethnic headcounts and highlights voters’ capacity to defect and strategically realign. While ethnic identity remains politically salient, the case underscores how voter agency can disrupt elite expectations within historically cohesive ethnic blocs.